Destin, FL

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings cover Destin as Isaias, now 110 mph and 958 mb about 245 miles south of Pensacola, races north-northeast toward a landfall this evening. The NHC surge range for the Alabama/Florida border to Grayton Beach is now 6-9 ft above ground if the peak hits at high tide, and tonight's peak is expected to line up with high tide.

The latest 82 runs pull Destin's gust peak up to a median 58 mph around 4 PM, damaging-wind territory, with the strongest run at 100 mph; rain comes in at a median 3.1 inches (1.4 to 5.4 for most runs), the bulk falling 9 AM to 11 PM today. Banding over the Panhandle could push localized totals far higher, and storm surge in the bays may trap floodwater longer than usual.

The NHC warns it would take only about a 6-hour delay in the wind shear to bring a stronger hurricane than expected onshore, and even small track wobbles near Pensacola could shift where the worst surge lands. Tornadoes and waterspouts coming ashore are the threat from about 6 PM to 4 AM, and surf on northwest Florida beaches could peak at 20-25 ft.

Once Isaias clears out, Sunday's high in Destin still splits from 76 to 89 across 82 runs, a 13-degree fork that hinges on how fast the dry air and building high pressure take over behind the storm. Sunday's rain chance is down to 1% from 53% because the storm is now moving through faster, and Columbus Day looks sunny near 85.